Saturday, December 26, 2015

A Worthy Charge for Both Sanders and Paul

Bernie Sanders quixotic charge at the Federal Reserve Bank is as pointless as Rand Paul’s demand for an audit of its books.  The bank is so far from the reality of everyday life that its followers are just reading tea leaves. Bernie showed some understanding of the Wall Street problem when he described in the first Democratic primary debate the phenomenon of regulatees regulating the regulators.  Its called Regulatory Capture defined by Nobel laureate economist George Stigler, “Regulatory capture is a form of political corruption that occurs when a regulatory agency, created to act in the public interest, instead advances the commercial or political concerns of special interest groups that dominate the industry or sector it is charged with regulating. Regulatory capture is a form of government failure; it creates an opening for firms or political groups to behave in ways injurious to the public (e.g., producing negative externalities). The agencies are called captured agencies.”  Yet he still believes regulating the captured finance industry is still possible!
Though they approach it from diametrically opposed ideological views Sanders and Paul agree that TBTF (Too Big To Fail) banks need to be converted to NTBTF (Not Too Big To Fail) as soon as possible.  A very simple suggested law written in the manner of our forefathers with general markers and no attempt to micromanage would be that financial institutions; be they bank, insurance or fund, control no more than one percent of GDP (Gross Domestic Product) in assets.  Those in charge of assets greater than that would be required to split into a sufficient number of separate companies with each at or below the legal limit.  Companies that grow from below 1% to over 1.5% would be required to split in two bring both halves to a level below 1%. The splits can be inexpensively done for its stockholders by distributing shares of all the different new entities to the shareholders of the original big company, very much in the same manner that the Bell Telephone company was split off into the various “Baby Bells”.  
If the law is kept simple with no exceptions worked in by the powerful Wall Street lobby in Washington then in one fell swoop the concentration in banking is reduced to a level that prudence, fear of failure, is ingrained in the system.  The NTBTF value in a $18 trillion dollar economy would be $180 billion which would give approximately ten J P Morgan Chase banks units for distribution to its stockholders. Think of it as the banker’s employment opportunity act which would require ten Jamie Dimons et cetera, et cetera but less dependence on the profit from risky derivative instruments built on hair trigger slivers of leveraged assets. Instead of a government guarantee banks would have to rely on counterparties with strong balance sheets and honest dealing and no more dependence on a credit agency’s rating coerced with a wink wink as pictured in “The Big Short”, Hollywood’s latest and very good explanation of what hit us in the Great Recession of 2008.
Reduced concentration in banking would do much to alleviate the other political bugaboo, income inequality. With fewer assets under each bank’s control the less the incentive for brainless control of assets so that fewer assets sustain stagnant accounts and more effort is put into productive Investments.  Banker’s income would be more of a reflection good management rather than the automatic doling out of a sliver from a giant asset base under management.  Also with many small banks, the lobby in Washington would have a much harder time to practice regulatory capture. Politically this proposed simple bank law would be opposed by the establishment, that would be Republican elites and Hillary Clinton. it’s a worthy charge for both Sanders and Paul.

Saturday, December 19, 2015

Greenspan let a Market Killing Machine Develop under his Watch

My response to Paul Krugman's comment that many influential, seemingly authoritative players, from Alan Greenspan on down, insisted not only that there was no bubble but that no bubble was even possible.


Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan was confident that the market would self regulate but his confidence was misplaced during the housing bubble when a grotesque concentration in banking developed because of the perception that the government would not let big banks fail. In other words, he betrayed his Ayn Rand Libertarian heritage by letting a market killing machine develop under his watch.

Friday, December 18, 2015

Quantitative Easing Could Be a useful Tool

The Federal reserve has the dual roles of checking inflation and promoting job growth and today's End of the Line for Easy Money  suggests that the opportunity for infrastructure investment has been squandered. It doesn't have to be so.  Quantitative Easing was a program developed by former Chairman Ben Bernanke to the ease the Great Recession by having the Federal Reserve buy Bonds.  This very same tool could be used selectively today where the Fed would buy the complete set of bonds financing an infrastructure project at a below market rate.  It would bring down the average yield of its portfolio minimally yet give a cash inducement for job creating construction work to repair our decaying infrastructure.

Tuesday, December 15, 2015

Fixing Fannie & Freddie

Jim Parrott and Mark Zandi just scratch the surface of the Fannie and Freddie question which should first eliminate the home ownership bias of the tax code that favors just the top ten percent of income earners.

Sunday, December 13, 2015

Fed Rate, Global Savings and Sovereign Wealth

There is anxiety over the imminent fed rate increase of one quarter of one percent!  Savings are sloshing around drowning and starving less developed countries but what about Sovereign Wealth Funds, such as Saudi Arabia's, drawing down to cover for their spending when oil receipts are low?  This draw down is going to consumption and using up savings.  It's the genesis of a turn in the deflation to inflation cycle.  The fed is correct in directing rates upward.

Sunday, June 21, 2015

Ever Since the 2008 Financial Crisis

I strongly disagree with Steven Rattner's opinion in today's New York Times that Andrew Jackson did more than most presidents to damage our financial system and our economy. I suppose it comes from reading Thirteen Bankers by Simon Johnson and James Kavak.

Tuesday, June 16, 2015

A Perfect Judgement

A.I.G. Boss Wins Suit but Loses The War is the perfect result.  Hank Greenberg makes his point at grotesque legal expense and zero re numeration.

Wednesday, June 10, 2015

Wednesday, June 3, 2015

Warren Disappointed With S.E.C. Chief

In a letter Senator Warren says she is disappointed with S.E.C. chief.  Well duhhhhh. The S.E.C. is an agency regulated by the regulatees.  Mary Jo White, the current Chairman of the S.E.C., went through the revolving door of government and law firms specializing in finance so many times that she has to recuse herself from practically every judicial action the agency enters into. From an investors point of view its a worthless agency full of lawyers who have no understanding of worthwhile investment activity. If you don't believe me then ask Harry Markopolos who painstakingly described the impossibility of Bernie Madoff to the SEC without result.

Sunday, May 31, 2015

Bankers Seeking Rents

Wall Street is Using the Power of Dodd-Frank Against Itself by Adam Davidson correctly identifies how complexity helps Bankers in their "Rent Seeking."  Never the less the solution is glaringly obvious but never thought of, which is to reduce the concentration in the finance business so that the usual market forces of trust and collateral work at self regulating the industry. When bankers ask themselves whether an ersatz derivative product is worth it versus whether its legal is where the line which when crossed enters the realm of corruption.  A Too Big To Fail institution's instrument made good by the taxpayer doesn't suffer from market forces determining it to be worthless in the same manner as the same instrument from a small bank who could fail.  A simple re-forming of Dodd-Frank would be to require all financial institutions; be they Banks, Funds, Insurance Companies, to split themselves into units the size of one tenth of one percent of GDP in assets they control.  If a unit should grow to a two tenths of one percent level of assets it controls then it needs to split self again. With every institution in a position of easy failure then, for example, Merrill Lynch's full court embrace of worthless mortgage backed securities would have fired Stanley Oneal rather than giving him a 100 million dollar bonus and the taxpayer a depression.        

Monday, May 11, 2015

Vampire? How about Loser

My response to Paul Krugman's Wall Street Vampires editorial  is that they are a bunch of losers.

Rather than call Wall Street vampires. call them for what they really are: losers. After 2008 any informed corporate finance officer and local government entity in the world receiving a call from a Wall Street banker with a solution to some made up risk hangs up the phone. The only customers left are those stupid enough to believe, other big banks.

The Market is walking away from the ersatz financial products that Wall Street foisted on corporations and municipalities so that no matter what is spent for lobbyists to de-fang Dodd Frank, nobody wants to buy the "heads I win, tails you lose" crap they offer.

Sunday, April 19, 2015

Relief for Banks that Rarely Fail

Rule Relief for Banks at Low Risk explains FDIC Vice Chairman Thomas Hoenig's proposal  for regulatory relief from Dodd Frank for Banks with simple easy to understand operations. Its a terrific proposal from an Agency for which I have high regard.

Saturday, April 18, 2015

Too Big to be of Interest to Investors

The Too Big To Fail syndrome culminated in the 2008 financial crisis.  Refocusing G.E. Reports Growth in Industrial Businesses notes that they expect their finance division to reduce to 10%  of overall profit generating operations.  This is a reduction from 42% in their finance department's hey day. Nobody put a gun to G.E.'s head and told them to come down from Too Big To Fail other than their own bean counters who determined it was a loser business and to get out.  Frankly, when finance gets too much over 10% of the country's economic activity its bad business.  As an investor I believe that the Too Big To Fail Banks are lousy investments.  Their lobby in Washington spends large sums fixing things so that they can practice foisting loser deals on completely suspecting customers who are running away from them as fast as they can.

Much Ado About Nothing

U.S. Primacy on Economics is Seen as Ebbing is a bunch of gibberish.  The U.S. economy is uniquely in the lead and our influence is ebbing?  Jonathan Weisman, what's your point?

Tuesday, April 7, 2015

Warren! I Smell a Rat

As a longtime follower of Warren Buffet and the Berkshire Hathaway Company I read his annual shareholders report.  He has waxed eloquent about 3G Capital of Brazil with whom he has invested in buying Heinz and now Kraft Foods.  Giant Food Companies Pay Later, Squeezing Their Suppliers headline in the business section of the New York Times puts in doubt the efficacy of Warren's investment with this crowd.  The failed investment in Tesco, the English supermarket chain, will look good in retrospect.

Sunday, March 1, 2015

Banks need Breaking up for Economic Vigor

Smothered by a Boom in Finance makes the point of this blog which is that when banking gets too big it hinders rather than promotes economic growth.